Iraqi Proliferation of Advanced Weapons

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	Iraqi Proliferation of Advanced Weapons

Filename:062dib.90

	Defense Intelligence Brief

Subject:	Iraqi Proliferation of Advanced Weapons

	Key Judgments


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	Iraq has developed a 600-kilometer extended-range SCUD, the 
Al
Husayn, and is nearing operational status on an 850-kilometer 
range missile, the Al Hamza, also based on the SCUD. A longer 
range 1,200-1,500-kilometer ballistic missile, the Al Hamza, 
reportedly is being developed, probably with foreign assistance, 
and is projected to reach operational status in the mid-to 
late-1990s. Iraq also claims to be developing a 2,000-kilometer 
range missile  called Tammuz-1. All these systems will be able to 
deliver conventional, chemical, or nuclear warheads when they are 
available. Currently, only conventional and probably chemical 
warheads are available.


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	Iraq has developed and used some of the most sophisticated 
chemical ordnance of any country in the Third World. Since the end 
of the war with Iran, Iraq has accelerated its efforts to produce 
chemical agents and to become self-sufficient in producing key 
precursor chemicals. Iraq clearly has the capability to use 
chemical weapons as an integrated part of any military operations.

	Biological warfare agents are under development in Iraq and 
likely will be fielded in the future.


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	Foreign technical assistance has been indicated in the 
development of a new missile system, the Al Hamza. This system 
reportedly is a solid-fuel, two-stage missile with a range of
1,200 to 1,500 kilometers and will be able to deliver 
conventional, chemical, or nuclear warheads when they are 
available. The missile
has an accuracy goal of 750 meters. Moreover, there are unverified 
reports that the Iraqis have assembled an undetermined number of
these missiles. 



	
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CW/BW Program

	Iraq has developed one of the Third World's most 
sophisticated chemical warfare (CW) programs and continues to 
emphasize nonconventional weapons superiority as a way to deter or 
to counter more populous or more technologically advanced enemies. 
 Spurred by their success with chemicals at the end of the war 
with Iran, Iraq has continued to move toward total self 
sufficiency for chemical
precursor production and could become an exporter of these 
chemicals. Iraq has learned from its errors in using chemicals and 
has become the country with the greatest battlefield experience in 
using CW. The only country ever to have used nerve agent weapons 
in war, Iraq has made nerve agents tabun (GA), sarin (GB), and GF. 
Baghdad also produces the blister agent mustard.

	Iraq is continuing to develop its extensive CW capability. 
New agents and weapons systems for CW use are being investigated. 
For  example, when Iraq was unable to get the key precursor for 
the nerve agent soman, Baghdad developed a capability to make the 
analogous chemical GF. GF is slightly less desirable because of 
its lower lethality, but is made from chemicals that are easier to 
obtain and has about the same persistency as soman.

	The largest chemical agent production complex on earth is 
located at Samarra, about 70 kilometers northwest of Baghdad. 
Separate lines for production of the nerve agents tabun, sarin, 
and GF, and blister agent mustard, as well as riot control agent 
production capabilities, give Iraq the greatest CW capacity in the 
region. Monthly production capacities have been estimated at 150 
tons of mustard, 5-10 tons of tabun, and 20 tons of sarin.

	Iraq has established a biological warfare (BW) program. We 
believe Iraq's current capability consists of both infectious and
toxin agents.


	More than 15 Iraqi facilities possess the technical 
capability to support a BW program. Of these, several probably are 
involved heavily in the BW program. The Salman Pak complex, 
previously thought to be exclusively dedicated to CW R&D, is now 
believed to be a leading BW R&D facility as well. The Iraqis are 
likely in the final R&D stages on Bacillus anthraces, Yibrio 
cholera, botulinum toxin, and staphylococcal enterotoxin B, and 
could develop biological weapons in the near term.

Delivery Vehicles

	Nuclear warheads, when available, could be delivered by 
aircraft or ballistic missiles. Iraq has a variety of artillery 
ammunition and aerial bombs for delivery of chemical agents, and
probably has a chemical warhead for ballistic missiles.

	Baghdad has developed at least two special applications of 
weapon systems to deliver chemical agents. Multiple rocket 
launcher (MRL) ammunition has been modified to accept up to three 
plastic containers in each warhead filled with chemical agent. The 
Iraqi
munition has some 10-12 kilograms of agent in each warhead 
compared to 3 kilograms in Soviet MRlL ammunition. Iraq also has 
developed
helicopter-launched rockets with chemical warheads.






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