Talking Paper for RADM Fox, DDIN, JS

File: 961031_950811_010bk_90d.txt
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Talking Paper for RADM Fox, DDIN, JS

Filename:010bk.90d
[   (b)(2)   ]	24 November 1990

Subject:  Talking Paper for RADM Fox, DDIN, JS

1.  Purpose:  To address Iraq's chemical and biological warfare 
(CBW) capability and indicators to use CBW.

2.  Talking Points:

	a.  Chemical Warfare:

		Iraq has developed the most complete and sophisticated 
chemical warfare program in the Third World.  Iraq has made nerve 
agents tabun (GA), sarin (GB), GF, and VX, as well as liquid and 
dusty mustard.

		Iraq is continuing to develop its extensive CW 
capability.  New agents and weapons systems for CW use are being 
investigated.

		Iraq is expanding its chemical production capabilities 
to allow production of all presursor chemicals required for nerve 
and blister agent production without relying on foreign suppliers.

		The world's largest chemical agent production complex is 
located at samarra, near Baghdad.  Monthly production capacities 
have been estimated at 150 tons for mustard, 5 to 10 tons for 
tabun, and 20 tons for sarin.  Production capacity for GF my be 
similar to that for sarin.

		Chemical warfare agents are stored at eight major 
airfields in S-shaped bunkers and at other depots dispersed 
throughout Iraq.  The total quantity of CW stocks is unknown but 
probably contains approximately 1000 tons of mustard and possibly 
hundreds of tons of nerve agents.  The quantity of VX is judged to 
be 10 to 20 tons.  It is unlikely that chemical munitions are 
located in Kuwait.

		Iraq has a range of artillery ammunition 130mm, 152mm 
with binary and/or unitary fills, and 155mm their preferred system 
for chemical delivery, 122mm multiple rocket launchers with binary 
and/or unitary fills and with 2 or 3 canisters or bottles 
containing CW agent, 82 mm and 120 mm mortars, 250kg and 500kg 
bombs, and munitions for 90mm air-to-surface rockets fo ruse by 
helicopters.  A limited number of chemical missile warheads is 
available for SCUDs and for extended range SCUD-type warhead 
missiles.

		Iraq has prepared its forces for offensive and defensive 
chemical warfare operations.  It has learned from its past errors 
in the Iran Iraq war in using chemicals.  It has become the 
country with the greatest battlefield experience in using CW and 
is the only country to have used nerve agent weapons in war.  
Currently, its forces are in an essentially defensive posture.

		Iraq has made preparations to launch CW attacks using 
fixed wing aircraft and helicopters.  Although some activity has 
been noted near SCUD launch sites, the locations of CW warheads 
for the SCUDs are not known.  Most likely targets for therse 
warheads include airfield, logisitic bases, and troop 
concentrations in the rear.

		Iraq is likely to use CW as an integral part of tactical 
operations to protect key political, military, or economic 
strategic areas.  One such area is the Northern portion of the 
Kuwait Theater of Operations (KTO).  Iraq would be highly likely 
to use in any offensive into Saudi Arabia.

		Iraq used CW in the Iran-Iraq War to deter or reverse a 
decisive and strong ground offensive by the enemy.  Iraq would use 
CW in a premptive or integral operation.  It would certainly use 
CW in any defensive situation to prevent its forces from being 
defeated or pushed back in Kuwait or Iraq.

	b.  Biological Warfare

		Iraq has established a biological warfare (BW) program 
which is supported at the highest level of the iRAQI Government.  
The current capability proably consists of at least hundreds of 
kilograms of anthrax and tens of kiolograms of botulinum toxin.

		More than fifteen Iraqi facilities possess the technical 
capability to support a BW program.  The Salman Pak complex is the 
leading BW research and development facility.

		BW has more of a stratefic role than does CW.  BW would 
most probably be used prior to the initiation of hostilities 
against large concentrations of personnel, such as troop areas in 
the rear and cities.  Both BW and CW can be used in a terrorist 
situation.  Iraq has indicated that it would use both as terrorist 
weapons systems in major cities throughout the world, especially 
against countries which oppose its policy regarding Kuwait and 
have taken a stand against it or have seized its assets.




Prepared by:      [   (b)(6)   ]




[   (b)(2)   ]