POSSIBLE IRAQI RADIOLOGICAL WEAP

File: 070296_cia_73887_73887_01.txt
Page: 01
Total Pages: 1
Subject: POSSIBLE IRAQI RADIOLOGICAL WEAP

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence







TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.







THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20505







NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL







          JANUARY 1991







MEMORANDUM FOR:  DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE



FROM:  NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE OFFICER FOR WARNING

NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE OFFICER FOR SCIENCE,

TECHNOLOGY, AND PROLIFERATION



SUBJECT:  POSSIBLE IRAQI RADIOLOGICAL WEAPONS







1. ACCORDING TO WESTERN PRESS REPORTS ON 14 JANUARY, IRAQ

CLAIMS TO HAVE SECRET WEAPONS THAT WOULD CAUSE TENS OF THOUSANDS

OF ITS FOES TO DIE BEFORE THEY COULD REACH IRAQI DEFENSES. THE

IRAQI DEFENSE MINISTRY NEWSPAPER AL-QADISIYA ASSERTED THAT,

"IRAQ'S ARSENAL CONTAINS SURPRISES WHICH WILL ASTONISH OUR

ENEMIES AND FASCINATE OUR FRIENDS." OTHER PRESS REPORTS HAVE

REFERRED TO "UNUSUAL" WEAPONS.



2.          INTELLIGENCE AND IRAQ'S ACCESS TO RADIOACTIVE

MATERIAL INDICATE IT WOULD BE FEASIBLE FOR THE IRAQIS TO BUILD A

FUNCTIONING RADIOLOGICAL WEAPON.







IRAQ DOES

NOT POSSESS A NUCLEAR BOMB BUT THAT THE IRAQIS COULD HAVE

OBTAINED RADIOACTIVE MATERIAL FROM OPERATION OF THEIR RESEARCH

REACTORS AND MAY PLAN TO DISPERSE THIS MATERIAL USING A

CONVENTIONAL EXPLOSIVE CHARGE.



4. SUCH AN IRAQI EXPLOSIVE RADIOLOGICAL DEVICE WOULD NOT BE A

MILITARILY SIGNIFICANT WEAPON. IT WOULD CREATE NO SPECIAL BLAST

EFFECT, AND IT COULD NOT CAUSE WIDESPREAD RADIATION SICKNESS.

THAT WOULD BE TRUE EVEN IN THE WORST CASE, WHICH WOULD PROBABLY

BE IF SUCH WEAPONS WERE USED AGAINST UNPREPARED AND UNPROTECTED

CIVILIANS IN A CITY.







5. THERE WOULD, HOWEVER, BE A SUBSTANTIAL PSYCHOLOGICAL

IMPACT, NOT ONLY ON THE TARGETS BUT ON THEIR LEADERS. IN THE FOG

OF WAR, MOREOVER, THE RADIOACTIVITY CAUSED BY THE DETONATION OF A

RADIOLOGICAL DEVICE COULD LEAD TO A CONCLUSION THAT IRAQ HAD USED

A NUCLEAR DEVICE. THAT MIGHT TRIGGER ESCALATORY MOVES AMONG

COALITION MEMBERS.



6. IF IRAQ HAS EXPLOSIVE RADIOLOGICAL DEVICES, WE BELIEVE

SADDAM WOULD TRY TO USE THEM IN A WAY THAT WOULD MAXIMIZE THEIR

POLITICAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL IMPACT. ALTERNATIVELY, IN VIEW OF

THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERREACTION, SADDAN MIGHT CONSIDER THEM TO BE

WEAPONS OF LAST RESORT.







1.5 (C)

73887:73887