IRAQ BW CAPABILITY

File: 070296_cia_73868_73868_01.txt
Page: 01
Total Pages: 1
Subject: IRAQ BW CAPABILITY

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence







TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.







KEY JUDGMENTS





IRAQ HAS AN ADVANCED BIOLOGICAL WARFARE CAPABILITY AND WE

BELIEVE IT HAS DEVELOPED A DISSEMINATION CAPABILITY FOR ANTHRAX SPORES AND

BOTULINUM TOXIN, AND MAY HAVE OTHER BW AGENTS WHICH POSE A SIGNIFICANT

THREAT TO COALITION FORCES.







IRAQ'S EFFECTIVE USE OF BW AGENTS IS DEPENDENT UPON FAVORABLE

METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND EFFICIENCY OF DISSEMINATION DEVICES.



THE RESILIENCY OF ANTHRAX SPORES AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR

DISSEMINATION BY CONVENTIONAL HIGH EXPLOSIVES PRESENTS THE MOST SERIOUS

AGENT RELEASE PROBLEM.



UNDER EXTREME CIRCUMSTANCES SADDAM WOULD MOST LIKELY CHOOSE TO

USE MUNITIONS FILLED WITH ANTHRAX SPORES AS A STRATEGIC WEAPON AGAINST

CIVILIAN AND KEY MILITARY TARGETS. IN TACTICAL SITUATIONS, BOTULINUM TOXIN

WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY WEAPON.



SADDAM'S MOST LIKELY TARGETS FOR COVERTLY DISSEMINATING BW

AGENTS PREEMPTIVELY WOULD BE US COMMAND POSTS, AIRBASES, AND AIRCRAFT

CARRIERS, IN AN ATTEMPT TO NEGATE U.S. AIR SUPERIORITY.



THE ARRAY OF POTENTIAL IRAQI BW TARGETS POSE UNIQUE

OPERATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS SUCH AS PROXIMITY TO CIVILIAN POPULATION CENTERS.

AMBIENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS, STRUCTURAL CONFIGURATION, AND HARDNESS

OF THE TARGET.







DEFENSIVE MEASURES TO INCLUDE USE OF RESPIRATORY PROTECTION

DURING PERIODS OF VULNERABILITY, VACCINATION AND ANTIBIOTICS SHOULD BE

INSTITUTED IMMEDIATELY.







SECTION I. IRAQ'S BIOLOGICAL WARFARE PROGRAM:





SUMMARY. IRAQ HAS AN ADVANCED BIOLOGICAL WARFARE (BW)

PROGRAM AND HAS DEVELOPED AT LEAST TWO BW AGENTS:  ANTHRAX SPORES AND

BOTULINUM TOXIN. THE IRAQIS HAVE SHOWN INTEREST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF OTHER

INFECTIOUS AGENTS AND TOXINS,







IRAQ HAS THE TECHNICAL EXPERTISE AS WELL AS THE FACILITIES NECESSARY FOR

STORAGE AND PRODUCTION OF THESE QUANTITIES OF BW AGENTS.



A. PRODUCTION FACILITIES.



PRODUCTION OF ANTHRAX SPORES AND BOTULINUM TOXIN IS

BELIEVED TO HAVE BEEN ONGOING FOR AT LEAST TWO YEARS. WE HAVE IDENTIFIED

AT LEAST THREE PRODUCTION FACILITIES:



-          A CLOSTRIDIUM VACCINE PLANT IN ABU GHRAIB

IS THE LOCATION OF BOTULINUM TOXIN PRODUCTION.







-          A PLANT IN THE TAJI AREA IS THE LOCATION OF

BW AGENT PRODUCTION.          ONE

LOCATION OF ANTHRAX SPORE PRODUCTION.







- A HIGH-CONTAINMENT BUILDING AT SALMAN PAK CONDUCTS BW RESEARCH AND

DEVELOPMENT AND IS PROBABLY THE LOCATION OF BW AGENT PRODUCTION.







OTHER CANDIDATE BW PRODUCTION FACILITIES EXAMINED

INCLUDE THE INFANT FORMULA PLANT AT ABU GHRAIB, SAMARRA DRUG INDUSTRIES,

AND TUWAITHA NUCLEAR RESEARCH CENTER.





 

IF THESE MUNITIONS

ARE FILLED AND DEPLOYED, THEY MOST PROBABLY INCLUDE AIR-DELIVERED MUNITIONS,

ARTILLERY PROJECTILES, AND SPRAY/AEROSOL GENERATING DEVICES WITH BOTULINUM

TOXIN.







D. IRAQI INTENTIONS TO USE BW.







PAST IRAQI TACTICAL BATTLEFIELD USE OF

CHEMICAL WEAPONS--IRAQ WAS THE FIRST NATION TO USE NERVE AGENTS ON THE

BATTLEFIELD--AND STATEMENTS BY IRAQI OFFICIALS JUSTIFYING EMPLOYMENT OF ANY

WEAPON TO DEFEND THEIR COUNTRY SUGGEST THAT BAGHDAD WOULD CONSIDER USING

BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS UNDER CERTAIN EXTREME CIRCUMSTANCES. IRAQ'S LACK OF

EXPERIENCE IN USING BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS WOULD PROBABLY NOT PREVENT A DECISION

TO USE THEM.





IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHAT SADDAM WOULD DEEM

AN EXTREME CIRCUMSTANCE:  AN AIR STRIKE AGAINST THE PRESIDENTIAL PALACE,

HUGE NUMBERS OF CASUALTIES, OR COALITION FORCES ABOUT TO OVERWHELM HIS

REGIME. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES, WE BELIEVE THAT BAGHDAD WOULD MOST

LIKELY CHOOSE TO USE ANTHRAX-FILLED WEAPONS IN A STRATEGIC ROLE AGAINST

CIVILIAN AND MILITARY TARGETS. EXPLICIT THREATS OR THE ACTUAL EMPLOYMENT

OF BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS AGAINST CIVILIAN OR STRATEGIC MILITARY TARGETS MIGHT

BE USED TO SHOCK AND/OR TERRORIZE THE COALITION INTO PROVIDING AN OPENING

FOR A POLITICAL RESOLUTION.



WE BELIEVE IT LESS LIKELY THAT BAGHDAD WOULD USE

ANTHRAX IN TACTICAL SITUATIONS, BUT WE CANNOT DISCOUNT THIS POSSIBILITY.

IN SUCH SITUATION, BOTULINUM TOXIN WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY FILL CHOICE

BECAUSE IT MAY CAUSE EFFECTS WITHIN SEVERAL HOURS.







THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SADDAM WOULD COVERTLY

DISSEMINATE BW AGENTS PREEMPTIVELY. IN OUR JUDGMENT, SADDAM'S MOST LIKELY

TARGETS FOR SUCH A SCENARIO WOULD BE US COMMAND POSTS, AIRBASES, AND

AIRCRAFT CARRIERS, IN AN ATTEMPT TO NEGATE US AIR SUPERIORITY. IN ADDITION,

OTHER PRIME TARGETS COULD BE MAJOR LOGISTICS CENTERS, AND LARGE TROOP

CONCENTRATIONS.







SECTION II. IRAQI BW THREAT TO COALITION FORCES:





SUMMARY. USE OF BIOLOGICAL WARFARE (BW) AGENTS BY IRAQ

POSES A SERIOUS THREAT TO COALITION FORCES.





A.          USE OF ANTHRAX SPORES AS A BW WEAPON. WEAPONIZED

ANTHRAX SPORES CAN BE USED IN ANY NUMBER OF CIRCUMSTANCES. ITS

CHARACTERISTICS (I.E., ENVIRONMENTAL RESISTANCE, AEROSOL INFECTIVITY, AND

LETHALITY) MAKE IT PARTICULARLY SUITABLE FOR VARIETY OF ATTACK SCENARIOS.





LARGE AREA COVERAGE. ANTHRAX SPORES LEND THEMSELF TO

WIDE AREA COVERAGE,







          CIVILIAN POPULATIONS. CIVILIAN POPULATIONS WOULD BE

AT RISK TO ATTACKS BY WHATEVER MEANS THE IRAQIS CHOSE TO DISSEMINATE THE

ANTHRAX SPORES.





B.          USE OF BOTULINUM TOXIN AS A BW WEAPON. BOTULINUM

TOXIN IS SIMILAR TO CHEMICAL AGENTS IN THAT IT IS NON-LIVING AND HAS ITS

EFFECT WITHIN HOURS OF INHALATION. BATTLEFIELD USE WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR

IN TACTICAL SITUATIONS REQUIRING A NON-PERSISTENT AGENT.







1.5 ( C )

 73868-73868