IRAQ SITUATION REPORT

File: 070296_cia_68170_68170_01.txt
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Subject: IRAQ SITUATION REPORT

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence







TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.







SPOT COMMENTARY







JANUARY 1991







IRAQ-KUWAIT:  SITUATION REPORT







BAGHDAD MAINTAINS CHEMICAL WARFARE OPTION







IRAQI          REFUSED TO RULE OUT

CHEMICAL ATTACKS WHILE SAYING THAT MISSILE STRIKES ON ISRAEL

WOULD CONTINUE;







COMMENT:  BAGHDAD HAS NOT CROSSED THE THRESHOLD FOR STRATEGIC

CHEMICAL WARFARE PROBABLY BECAUSE IT BELIEVES THAT CONVENTIONAL

MEANS TO PROVOKE ISRAELI RETALIATION AND TO INCITE POPULAR ARAB

VIOLENCE HAVE NOT BEEN EXHAUSTED. IRAQI MISSILE COMMANDERS

PROBABLY ARE ENCOURAGED THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THEIR LAUNCHERS IN

WESTERN IRAQ HAVE BEEN ABLE TO FIRE TWO WAVES OF ATTACKS DESPITE

COALITION AIR SUPREMACY. BAGHDAD PROBABLY HAS BEEN HESITANT TO

 USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS FOR FEAR OF RETALIATION IN KIND

OR OF HARSHER CONVENTIONAL ATTACKS BY THE COALITION.

SADDAM MAY ALSO BELIEVE THAT THE ESCALATORY OPTION WILL BE OF

GREATER VALUE LATER IN THE WAR WHEN HE HOPES HIGH COALITION

CASUALTIES FROM GROUND FIGHTING WILL MAKE THE THREAT OF CHEMICAL

WARFARE MORE EFFECTIVE IN ENDING THE WAR FAVORABLY.



WE CANNOT RULE OUT THAT IRAQ WILL ESCALATE TO STRATEGIC

CHEMICAL ATTACKS SOONER--PERHAPS EVEN DURING ITS NEXT STRIKE.

THE MISSILE STRIKES' RELATIVE INEFFECTIVENESS SO FAR,







1.5 (C)

68170-68170