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File: aabft_01.txtSUBJECT: CBW THREAT TO DESERT SHEILD CBW THREAT TO DESERT SHIELD There is potential threat to staging of operation Desert Shield from. Iraq's chemical and biological weapons. Although Saddam's air delivery systems may be unable to successfully strike sites such as the Royal Saudi Air force Headquarters complex and the airfield in Bahrain,, both these and other such sites may be vulnerable to unconventional attack, If we engage the Iraqis, one of their prime objectives is likely to be degradation of our air power. He believe Saddam may use every means at his disposal to disrupt and degrade US warfighting capabilities: Although we have no data to indicate whether or not he knows the locations of strategic elements of our forces, we believe Saddam may assess the likelihood that he could reach them to be greater with a nonconventional approach. [(b)(1)sec3.4(b)(2)] The following data and scenarios should be considered representative rather than absolute or all inclusive. Surface winds, critical elements in judging the spread of chemical or biological agents, are highly variable in both speed and direction during October. This situation favors the defender, making it more difficult for those mounting an attack to plan it, but does not negate the potential danger of attack. . There are various possible scenarios involving sabotage which we will not address. He will, instead, focus on examples of scenarios involv1ng surprise, unconventional attack. Scenarios [(b)(1)sec 3.4(b)(2)
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