IRAQ-KUWAIT: SITUATION UPDATE.

File: 971030_dsa151a_91d_001.txt
Page: 001
Total Pages: 1

[b.2.]

SERIAL: DSA 151A-91

/*********** THIS IS A COMBINED MESSAGE ************/

SUBJECT: IRAQ-KUWAIT: SITUATION UPDATE.

DOI: 14 FEB 91 (AS OF 0930 EST)
))
MAJOR POINTS
))
1. [b.1. sec. 1.5.c] IRAQ LAUNCHED TWO SRBMS
[b.1. sec. 1.5.c.]
DEVELOPING SITUATION
))

5. IRAQI SRBM ATTACKS INTO NORTHERN SAUDI ARABIA TODAY
PRESENTED SEVERAL FIRSTS IN BAGHDAD'S MISSILE STRATEGY. [b.1. sec. 1.5.c.]
IRAQ LAUNCHED TWO SRBMS [b.1. sec. 1.5.c.]. ACCORDING TO
PRELIMINARY REPORTS EACH MISSILE BROKE INTO TWO PARTS, WITH PARTS
IMPACTING [b.1. sec. 1.5.a., e., g.] IN THE VICINITY OF
HAFAR AL BATIN. PATRIOT MISSILES REPORTEDLY ATTEMPTED TO INTERCEPT
THE FIRST SRBM, BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL. THE SECOND SRBM WAS
APPARENTLY OUT OF THE PATRIOT'S ENGAGEMENT ENVELOPE. THE EXTENT OF
ANY DAMAGE DONE AT HAFAR AL BATIN IS NOT CLEAR AT THIS TIME.
COMMENT: THIS IS THE FIRST LAUNCH FROM [b.1. sec. 1.5.c.] THE FIRST
TIME IRAQ HAS ATTEMPTED TO LAUNCH AGAINST A MILITARY TARGET AT MID-DAY. IRAQ'S TARGETING OF THIS AREA MAY HAVE BEEN AN ATTEMPT TO
INFLICT CASUALTIES AND CREATE DOUBTS AMONG THE COALITION'S ARAB
PARTNERS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT CONTINUOUS COALITION COMBAT AIR
PATROLS OVER PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED SRBM LAUNCH AREAS MAY HAVE CAUSED
BAGHDAD TO MOVE TO NEW LAUNCH AREAS. FINALLY, THE LAUNCHING MAY BE
IN RESPONSE TO THE US BOMBING OF THE BUNKER IN BAGHDAD YESTERDAY.
IRAQ'S PREVIOUS SRBM LAUNCHES HAVE UNDENIABLY BEEN INTENDED AS
TERROR ATTACKS AGAINST CIVILIAN POPULATION CENTERS. FURTHER, SUCH
ATTACKS AT THIS TIME MIGHT REDUCE ANY WORLD SYMPATHY FOR CIVILIAN
CASUALTIES AT THE BUNKER. THE REASONS FOR ITS USE OF MODIFIED SCUDS
INSTEAD OF THE MORE ACCURATE SCUD-B, WITH ITS MORE POWERFUL WARHEAD,
FROM A CLOSER LAUNCH SITE IS NOT CLEAR.
))
DISCUSSION
[b.1. sec. 1.5.c.]

7. SINCE THE WAR BEGAN IN THE GULF, EPWS ARE REPORTED TO
HAVE COME FROM AT LEAST 17 INFANTRY AND 4 ARMORED DIVISIONS, AS WELL
AS SUPPORTING ARTILLERY AND AIR DEFENSE UNITS. MOST EPWS ARE OF LOW
RANK, ARE VETERANS OF THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR WHO WERE RECALLED TO DUTY,
AND ARE EXTREMELY TIRED OF WARTIME SERVICE. THE EPWS GENERALLY PUT
UP LITTLE RESISTANCE TO COALITION INTERROGATION AND HAVE PROVIDED
INFORMATION ON MILITARY ORDER OF BATTLE SUBJECTS, AND MORALE AND
PSYCHOLOGICAL CONDITIONS. EPWS REPORT THAT MANY IRAQIS BELIEVE THAT
IT WAS WRONG TO INVADE KUWAIT AND THAT THIS IS SADDAM'S WAR. POOR
L1VING CONDITIONS, DISCRIMINATION AGAINST MINORITY SOLDIERS, SUPPLY
PROBLEMS AND MALTREATMENT OF SOLDIERS BY OFFICERS CONTINUE TO SPUR
DESERTIONS. COMMENT: EPWS HAVE REPORTED THAT MOST IRAQI DESERTERS
HAVE FLED TO IRAQ AND THAT MANY OTHERS WOULD DESERT BUT FOR FEARS
FOR THEIR OWN AND THEIR FAMILIES' SAFETY. FRONTLINE UNITS COULD BE
CONSIDERABLY MORE DEGRADED IN TERMS OF PERSONNEL STRENGTH THAN THE
NUMBER OF EPWS SUGGEST.

[b.1. sec. 1.5.c.]

10. MISSILE/CHEMICAL ACTIVITY. RECENT IMAGERY REVEALS
NEW DESTRUCTION OF SUSPECTED BIOLOGICAL AND/OR CHEMICAL WEAPON
STORAGE BUNKERS IN IRAQ. A REFRIGERATED 12-FRAME BUNKER AT THE
TIKRIT AMMUNITION DEPOT HAS BEEN DESTROYED. THIS IS THE 14TH OF 19
IDENTIFIED IRAQ1 SPECIAL REFRIGERATED BUNKERS DESTROYED TO DATE,
REPRESENTING A 74 PERCENT DEGRADATION IN IRAQ'S CAPACITY TO STORE
BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS OR OTHER HEAT-SENSITIVE MATERIEL, INCLUDING
CHEMICAL WEAPONS. COMMENT: THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS THAT WEAPONS AND
MATERIEL REQUIRING REFRIGERATED STORAGE COULD HAVE BEEN MOVED TO
OTHER UNIDENTIF1ED, POSSIBLY CIVILIAN, FACILITIES BEFORE THE BUNKERS
WERE HIT BY COALITION AIR STRIKES.
11. AT THE KIRKUK AMMUNITION DEPOT, TWO S-SHAPED BUNKERS
SUSPECTED OF STORING CHEMICAL WEAPONS HAVE BEEN HEAVILY DAMAGED. TO
DATE, 16 OF IRAQ'S 22 S-SHAPED BUNKERS HAVE BEEN DESTROYED,
REPRESENTING A 73 PERCENT REDUCTION IN THIS TYPE OF FACILITY. IT IS
HIGHLY PROBABLE THAT SOME OF IRAQ'S CHEMICAL WEAPONS INVENTORY HAS
BEEN DISPERSED TO INSURE SURVIVABILITY. AT THE QAYYARAH WEST
AMMUNITION DEPOT, MUNITIONS DISPERSAL HAS BEEN IN PROGRESS SINCE
EARLY FEBRUARY. RECENT ACTIVITY NEAR ONE OF THE FOUR S-SHAPED
BUNKERS AT THIS DEPOT SUGGESTS THAT CHEMICAL WEAPONS MAY BE PRESENT
IN NEW REVETTED, EARTH-COVERED STORAGE THAT HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED
JUST OUTSIDE THE DEPOT.
12. THERE HAVE BEEN NO CONFIRMED REPORTS OF COLLATERAL
CONTAMINATION AS A RESULT OF COALITION AIR STRIKES ON BIOLOGICAL AND
CHEMICAL RESEARCH, PRODUCTION, OR STORAGE FACILITIES. COMMENT:
DECONTAMINATION EFFORTS HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED AT SITES THAT HAVE
SUFFERED BOMB DAMAGE, INDICATING THAT IRAQ IS CONFIDENT THAT NO
CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL CONTAMINATION HAS RESULTED. THE RUBBLE AND
DEBRIS FORMED AS A RESULT OF A BOMB HIT WOULD PROBABLY CONTAIN
MINIMAL CONTAMINATION, AND IRAQ MAY HAVE DECONTAMINATED CERTAIN
AREAS WITHOUT BEING DETECTED. IRAQ PROBABLY EVACUATED AT LEAST SOME
SENSITIVE FACILITIES PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF HOSTILITIES TO INSURE
SURVIVABILITY OF EQUIPMENT, PROCESSING STOCKS, AND FILLED WEAPONS.

[b.1. sec. 15.c.]

[b.1. sec. 1.5. b., c., d.]

[b.2.]