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File: 961031_950925_80101055.txtMARCENT Sitrep Filename:80101055 Subject: MARCENT Sitrep PATHFINDER RECORD NUMBER: 1055 GENDATE: 950622 NNNN TEXT: ENVELOPE CDSN = LGX089 MCN = 91026/17193 TOR = 910261648 OTTSZYUW RUEKJCS7253 0261646---RUEALGX. ZNY HEADER O 261646Z JAN 91 FM JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC INFO RUEALGX/SAFE O 230019Z JAN 91 FM COMUSMARCENT//G-2/MAFC// TO AIG 13835 RHOPLHA/CG FIFTH MEB//G-2// RUHGOWA/CG FOURTH MEB//G-2// RUHGOKI/THIRTEENTH MEU//S-2// RUWDCAA/FIFTEENTH MEU//S-2// RHOPLHA/ELEVENTH MEU//S-2// INFO RHIIMAA/COMUSMARCENT//G-2// RHIUFAA/USCENTAF FWD HQS ELEMENT//G-2/MARLNO// RULSMCA/CG MCCDC QUANTICO VA//IN// ZEN/FIRST MAFC RHIGDSC/THIRD LAAMBN DET BRAVO//S-2// RUVNSMQ/COMNAVSPECWARGRU ONE DET ELEVEN RUVNRNJ/COMNAVSPECWARGRU ONE DET THIRTEEN RHIGDSC/CG SECOND FSSG FWD//G-2// ZEN/SECOND RPVCO RUWJGFB/CG THIRD MAW REAR//G-2// RHIIMDD/MWSG THREE SEVEN RHIIMDD/EIGHTH COMMBN FWD//S-2/S-3// RHIIMDD/FIRST ANGLICO RHIIMDD/THIRD NCR RHIIMDD/RUWDCAA/CG I MEF REAR//G-2/MAFC// RHIIMDD/SECONDBN TWO FOUR MAR//S-2// RHIIMDD/THIRDBN TWO FOUR MAR//S-2// RHIIMDD/SECOND LAAMBN ZEN/MASS THREE RHFJSGG/FFMA RBSWAP RHFJSGG/FMA RBSWBA RUEKJCS/DIA WASHINGTON DC//IRAQ REGIONAL ITF// RHMPOSP/SEVENTH FLT OSP RHOPLHA/ELEVENTH MEU//S-2// BT SECTION 01 OF 03 PASS THROUGH FSSG TO CSSD ONE THREE ONE, ONE SIX THREE TWO, ONE FOUR TWO. PASS THROUGH THIRD MARINES TO HMH FOUR SIX THREE AND FOUR SIX FIVE. PASS THROUGH FIRST MARDIV TO CSSD TEN, CSSD ELEVEN, AND CSSD SEVENTEEN. /*********** THIS IS A COMBINED MESSAGE ************/ BODY OPER/DESERT SHIELD// MSGID/INTSUM/CG I MEF REAR/43-91/JAN// NARR/CG I MEF REAR LOC VIC AL JUBAYL, SAUDI ARABIA// PERIOD/FROM: 221500Z JAN 91/TO 230300Z JAN 91/AS OF 230300Z JAN 91// GROUND EN LOCSTATS DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED MESSAGE FLOW AND A NEED TO MINIMIZE TRAFFIC. THE MARCENT INTSUM WILL PRODUCE THE LOCSTATS EVERY THREE DAYS. NEXT CUMULATIVE LOCSTAT WILL APPEAR IN INTSUM 44-91. HEADING/GROUND SUMMARY// 1. OBSERVATION POST 4 (2853N04731E/38RQS465982) RECEIVED REPORTED MORTAR FIRE ON THE NIGHT OF THE 21ST. (NFI) 2. OBSERVATION POST 6 (2833N04741E/38RQS620620) REPORTED RECEIVING SMALL ARMS AND RPG FIRE AT APPROX 212350L JAN 91. EARLIER THAT DAY AN IZ OFFICER HAD RETURNED ACROSS HIS OWN LINES FROM VIC OP6 AND WAS TO RETURN WITH HIS COMPANY UNDER COVER OF DARKNESS. IT IS AS YET UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS WAS A RUSE TO SURVEIL OP6 OR A BONA FIDE DEFECTION ATTEMPT. 3. IT WAS REPORTED THAT A SAUDI BORDER POST WEST OF THE TRI-BORDER AREA (VIC 2900N04551E) WAS OVERRUN BY AN UNK NUMBER OF IZ SOLDIERS ON THE MORNING OF THE 22ND. THE SAUDIS MADE THIS DISCOVERY WHEN A RESUPPLY VEH WAS FIRED UPON. (NFI). HEADING/BDA SUMMARY// 1. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT IN THE MARCENT AOR/SOUTHEAST KUWAIT AREA. POSSIBLE FROG HIDE SITES WERE DESTROYED BY 3D MAW ASSETS DURING THE AFTERNOON OF 22 JAN. HIDE SITES WERE LOCATED VIC 2844N04817E. HEADING/AIR SUMMARY// 1. AIR ACTIVITY ON 21 JANUARY WAS VERY LIGHT, WITH ONLY 13 SORTIES DETECTED: - FIGHTER X 11 - HELICOPTER X 2 MOST SORTIES DETECTED WERE SINGLE FIGHTERS OPERATING IN CENTRAL IRAQ NEAR AL TAQADDUM AIRFIELD (3320N04335E). A SINGLE AIRCRAFT WAS DETECTED CONDUCTING GCI NEAR TALLIL (3055N04605E). IRAQ APPEARS TO BE AVOIDING ENGAGEMENTS WITH COALITION AIRCRAFT. THEIR CURRENT STRATEGY IS TO CONSERVE AIRCRAFT BY KEEPING THEM IN HARDENED SHELTERS AT AIRFIELDS THROUGHOUT IRAQ, AND TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE OCCASIONAL TARGET OF OPPORTUNITY WHEN CONDITIONS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR IRAQI PILOTS. SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE CONFLICT, THERE HAVE BEEN NO IRAQI FIGHTER SWEEPS OR OTHER LARGE SCALE USE OF AIRCRAFT. THE IRAQ MILITARY LEADERSHIP MAY FEAR THAT TOO MANY IRAQ AIRCRAFT WOULD BE LOST TO COALITION FIGHTERS IF SUCH TACTICS WERE USED. SO FAR, IN THE FEW ENGAGEMENTS THAT HAVE OCCURRED BETWEEN THE TWO SIDES, IRAQ HAS BEEN ON THE LOSING SIDE NEARLY EVERY TIME. 2. [ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ]AIR STRIKE DAMAGE AT H-3 (3255N04035E) AIRFIELD IN THE WESTERN AIR DEFENSE SECTOR. THE LARGE AIRCRAFT MAINTENANCE HANGAR SUSTAINED SIGNIFICANT BOMB DAMAGE AND DEBRIS WAS ON THE ADJACENT HARDSTAND. SEVERAL HELICOPTERS THAT HAD BEEN JUST OUTSIDE THE MAINTENANCE AREA HAD DEPARTED. TWO PROBABLE FISHBED REMAINED NEAR HARDENED AIRCRAFT BUNKERS, AND SEVERAL FITTERS REMAINED IN THE INFIELD. THE [ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ] STORAGE BUNKER [ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ] AT AL TAQADDUM, [ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ]ADDITIONAL BOMB DAMAGE WAS INFLICTED ON THE EASTERN MOST RUNWAY. SEVERAL CRATERS [ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ] NEAR THE SOUTHERN CONNECTING LINKS AND DAMAGE WAS ALSO [ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ] NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WESTERN RUNWAY. THERE WERE NUMEROUS OTHER CRATERS THROUGHOUT THE FACILITY. (NFI). HEADING/MARITIME SUMMARY// 1. AT 1830C 21 JAN, FOUR COALITION AIRCRAFT ATTACKED A POSSIBLE T-43 MSF (MINESWEEPER) IN THE NORTHERN GULF IN VICINITY 2942N04842E, REPORTEDLY LEAVING THE VESSEL ON FIRE AND SINKING. (NFI). 2. THREE POLNOCHNY LSM PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT KHOR AZ ZUBAYR (301143N0475300E) REMAIN UNLOCATED. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE UNITS MAY HAVE DISPERSED FROM THE PORT. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THEY ARE CONDUCTING OPERATIONS IN THE NPG IN SUPPORT OF IZ FORCES DEPLOYED IN THE KTO. HEADING/NBC/MISSILE SUMMARY// 1. 22 JAN SRBM LAUNCH ACTIVITY: A. (S/REL UK) TIME LAUNCH LOCATION AZIMUTH 0041Z 3000N04740E 190 0041Z 3000N04740E 190 THESE TWO MISSILES WERE APPARENTLY TARGETED AGAINST RIYADH. ONE IMPACT WAS DETECTED AT ABOUT 0049Z IN THE VIC OF 2435N04650E, ABOUT 600 KM FROM THE LAUNCH SITE. (NFI). B. TIME LAUNCH LOCATION AZIMUTH 0409Z 3100N04720E 158 0410Z 3100N04720E 154 0410Z 3100N04720E 154 THE FIRST PREDICTED IMPACT WAS IN QATAR. THE SECOND PREDICTED IMPACT WAS 25 NM SOUTH OF DHAHRAN, SAUDI ARABIA, AND THE THIRD WAS APPROX 100 NM SOUTH OF DHAHRAN. (NFI). 2. AT LEAST SIX PROBABLE MODIFIED SCUDS WERE LAUNCHED FROM IRAQ INTO SAUDI ARABIA ON 20 JAN. FURTHER INFORMATION HAS NEGATED ONE OF THE SEVEN LAUNCHES ORIGINALLY REPORTED. THE MISSILES WERE LAUNCHED FROM TWO AREAS WITHIN IRAQ (3105N04720E AND 3000N04710E). 3. AT LEAST TWO, POSSIBLY THREE SRBMS WERE LAUNCHED FROM THE WADI AR RATQA (3409N04046E) FIXED LAUNCH SITE 1827Z, 22 JAN. ALL MISSILES WERE ON AN AZIMUTH OF BTWN 260 DEGREES TO 240 DEGREES WITH AN APPARENT IMPACT POINT IN ISRAEL. INITIAL REPORTS INDICATE ONE OF THE SRBM'S WAS DESTROYED BY PATRIOT MISSILES. (NFI). 4. IRAQ HAS FIRED OVER TWENTY SHORT RANGE BALLISTIC MISSILES (SRBM'S) AT TARGETS IN SAUDI ARABIA. MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE SRBM'S APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN AIMED AT EITHER RIYADH OR DHAHRAN. MANY OF THE MISSILES HAVE BEEN INTERCEPTED AND DESTROYED BY PATRIOT DEFENSE MISSILES, ALTHOUGH CRATERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE APPARENT TARGETS INDICATES SEVERAL HAVE PENETRATED THE DEFENSE SYSTEM. IN ANY CASE, DAMAGE TO DATE FROM PENETRATING MISSILES OR FROM INTERCEPT DEBRIS IS MINIMAL. ALTHOUGH ATTACKS CONTINUE ON IZ FIXED AND MOBILE SRBM LAUNCHERS, NEITHER LAUNCH SYSTEM HAS BEEN SUFFICIENTLY DEGRADED TO RENDER THEM INEFFECTIVE. CONTINUED SRBM LAUNCHES AGAINST A /****** BEGINNING OF SECTION 002 ******/ VARIETY OF TARGETS REMAINS A HIGH PROBABILITY. DIA COMMENT: SADDAM MAY BE EXPERIENCING INCREASING FRUSTRATION DUE TO THE OBVIOUS LACK OF SUCCESS IN HIS SRBM FORCE ACHIEVING ASSIGNED MILITARY OR POLITICAL OBJECTIVES. AN ISRAELI COUNTERSTRIKE HAS NOT BEEN PROVOKED, THE MISSILES HAVE PROVEN UNEXPECTEDLY VULNERABLE TO INTERCEPT, AND THOSE MISSILES WHICH HAVE REACHED THEIR TARGETS HAVE RESULTED IN NEGLIGIBLE DAMAGE. THESE FAILURES MAY RESULT IN SADDAM'S DECIDING TO ESCALATE THE USE OF HIS SRBM FORCE BY THE USE OF POSSIBLE CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL WARHEADS IN AN EFFORT TO ACHIEVE THE SUCCESS THAT HAS THUS FAR BEEN DENIED, PARTICULARLY AGAINST ISRAEL. 5. THE ABILITY OF IRAQ TO PRODUCE CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL AGENTS HAS BEEN SERIOUSLY DEGRADED. AT THE SAMARRA CHEMICAL PRODUCTION FACILITY (3350N04350E), PRODUCTION AREAS HAVE SUSTAINED HEAVY DAMAGE. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS SERIOUS DAMAGE AT THE PROBABLE FILLING COMPOUND. DAMAGE INCLUDES DESTRUCTION OF TWO OF THE THREE PROBABLE FILLING BUILDINGS, ONE REVETTED WAREHOUSE AND DAMAGE OR DESTRUCTION OF SEVERAL OF THE PRODUCTION FACILITIES. AT THE SALMAN PAK BW FACILITY (3306N04421E), THE SECOND IZ-FRAME REFRIGERATED BUNKER HAS BEEN SEVERELY DAMAGED. ONE BUNKER, NOT A REFRIGERATED BUNKER, REMAINS UNDAMAGED. AT THE TAJI BW FACILITY (3333N04418E) ONE LAB BUILDING HAS BEEN DESTROYED AND THE ROOF OF ANOTHER SUPPORT BUILDING HAD MINOR DAMAGE. MARCENT ANALYST COMMENT: IRAQ PROBABLY RETAINS SUFFICIENT QUANTITIES OF SELECT AGENTS AVAILABLE FOR USE AGAINST COALITION FORCES, AT LEAST FOR THE NEAR TERM. PROBABLE DISPERSAL ACTIVITY WAS WIDELY REPORTED PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF HOSTILITIES. HEADING/COUNTERINTELLIGENCE ACTIVITY// 1. USMARCENT PLACES THE TERRORIST THREAT LEVEL AT HIGH/CHARLIE. MARCENT CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE SITUATION VERY CLOSELY DUE TO DAILY REPORTING OF POSSIBLE SURVEILLANCE AND ELICITATION ATTEMPTS THROUGHOUT THE MARCENT AOR AND BAHRAIN. 2. INFORMATION RECEIVED STATES THAT 4-6 IRAQI INTELLIGENCE OFFICERS HAVE ENTERED SAUDI ARABIA IN A WHITE "BRAZILIAN MANUFACTURED" TRUCK. THE TRUCK HAS A RED STRIPE RUNNING THE LENGTH OF THE VEHICLE AND BEARS KUWAITI LICENSE PLATES. THESE INDIVIDUALS ARE REPORTEDLY IN THE KINGDOM TO CONDUCT ACTS OF TERRORISM (NFI). 3. SADDAM HUSSEIN STATED ON RADIO BAGHDAD ON 19 JAN 91, THAT A WORLDWIDE TERRORISM CAMPAIGN WAS TO COMMENCE IMMEDIATELY. PREVIOUS REPORTS STATED THAT HUSSEIN WOULD ORDER HIS TERRORIST SUPPORTERS INTO ACTION IN THIS MANNER, AND THIS COULD HAVE BEEN THE ORDER THE MULTITUDE OF TERRORIST SUPPORTERS HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR SINCE AUGUST. THE RECENT SUCCESS OF PATRIOT MISSILE BATTERIES WILL LIKELY MAKE THEM A HIGH PRIORITY TARGET, TOGETHER WITH MAJOR HEADQUARTERS, AIRFIELDS, AND LOGISTICS SITES. HEADING/OTHER ACTIVITY// 1. (U) NSTR.// HEADING/NEW BARRIERS AND OBSTACLES// 1. OP6 REPORTS THAT ELEMENTS OF THE FIRE TRENCH SYSTEM LOC VIC 2856N04735E HAVE BEEN IGNITED AND ARE BURNING. IT WAS FURTHER REPORTED THAT THE OP WAS COMPLETELY ENVELOPED IN SMOKE AND UNABLE TO DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW MUCH OF THE TRENCH WAS ABLAZE. MARCENT ANALYST COMMENT: THE TEMPERATURES INVOLVED IN A FIRE OF THIS NATURE AND MAGNITUDE WOULD PROBABLY IGNITE THE ENTIRE SYSTEM OF THE PARTICULAR TRENCH SHOULD ANY SECTION BE IGNITED. HEADING/WEATHER// 48 HOUR OUTLOOK: GRADUALLY DECREASING (22 JAN - 23 JAN) CLOUDINESS. NW'LY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 60'S MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW 40'S 72 HOUR OUTLOOK: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS (23 JAN - 24 JAN) BECOMING SW'LY. BAGHDAD (S) PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. VISIBILITY 5 IN HAZE, OCCASIONAL 2-4 MILES IN FOG EARLY TUE MORNING. WINDS SW'LY AT 05KTS BECOMING SSW'LY AT 08-14KTS GUSTS TO 20KTS TUE. MAX TEMP 56 MIN 41 AVIATION FORECAST: 10 SCT 30 BKN 1F 25005KTS TIL 0900L 30 SCT 100 BKN 250 BKN 5H 23008-14G20KTS CLOUD COVERAGE 50-80% IMPROVING CONDITIONS MAY LESSEN THE IMPACT OF THE WEATHER ON MILITARY OPERATIONS. KUWAIT (S) MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IMPROVING LATE IN THE DAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE 4-6 IN HAZE, OCCASIONAL 1/4 MILE IN FOG AND LIGHT DRIZZLE FROM 0200-1000L ON TUE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NE'LY AT 05KTS TONIGHT, THEN NW'LY AT 06-12KTS GUSTS TO 18KTS TOMORROW. MAX TEMP 67, MIN 47 AVIATION FORECAST: 5 SCT 10 BKN 30 OVC 5H/1/4L-F 0300-1000L 06005KTS TUE: 30 SCT 250 SCT-BKN 5H 32006-12G18KTS CLOUD COVERAGE: 100%-40% EARLY MORNING FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO EFFECT MILITARY OPERATIONS. HEADING/ENEMY CAPABILITIES// 1. IRAQ HAS THE CAPABILITY TO ATTACK INTO SAUDI ARABIA WITH FIVE ARMOR DIVS (3RD, 6TH, 17TH, 10TH, AND 12TH), FOUR MECH INF DIV'S (1ST, 5TH, 51ST AND TAWAKALNA) IN 12 HOURS (WITH UNAMBIGUOUS TACTICAL WARNING OF POSS 6 TO 8 HOURS), OR FOR A MAJOR ATTACK WITH SEVEN ARMOR DIV'S IN 36 TO 48 HOURS (WITH UNAMBIGUOUS TACTICAL WARNING OF POSS 12 TO 24 HOURS). IRAQ ALSO HAS THE CAPABILITY TO CONTINUE DEFENDING KUWAIT AND THE TRI-BORDER AREA WITH NINETEEN INF DIV'S AND THE ABOVE LISTED FORCES. IRAQ HAS DEMONSTRATED THE CAPABILITY TO CONDUCT EXTREMELY SHORT WARNING SRBM ATTACKS AND SORTIE INTERCEPTORS FOR LOCALIZED AIR DEFENSE. HEADING/ENEMY VULNERABILITIES// 1. [ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ] HEADING/CONCLUSIONS 1. IRAQ'S STRATEGY FOR DEFENDING THE KTO CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO CONCENTRATE ON STRONG, WELL ORGANIZED FORWARD INFANTRY DEFENSES ALONG ALL MAJOR APPROACHES AND ON MOBILE TACTICAL AND THEATER RESERVES. FORTIFIED POSITIONS NOW EXTEND FROM THE COAST JUST NORTH OF THE KU/SA TRI-BORDER AREA TO A POINT SOUTH OF AS SALMAN. THE SECOND FORTIFIED LINE ACROSS SE KUWAIT FROM VICINITY OF AL JABER AFLD TO RAS AL QULAYAH HAS BECOME THE MAIN DEFENSIVE LINE IN THE EAST. INFANTRY UNITS ARE DEPLOYED IN DEPTH AND ARE BACKED BY ARMOR/MECHANIZED UNITS AND LARGE CONCENTRATIONS OF ARTILLERY. THE THEATER/STRATEGIC RESERVE, AND THE RGFC HEAVY DIVISIONS, ARE LOCATED ALONG THE KUWAIT-IRAQ BORDER REGION. 2. THESE DEPLOYMENTS AND THE EXTENSIVE DEFENSIVE BELTS ARE INTENDED TO SLOW ANY ATTACKING FORCE WHILE INFLICTING MAXIMUM CASUALTIES. WHILE IRAQI FORCES DO RETAIN A SIGNIFICANT CAPABILITY TO CONDUCT A HASTY ASSAULT, DEFENSIVE PREPARATIONS AND A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT LEAD TO THE ASSESSMENT THAT IRAQI FORCES ARE CONDUCTING A DELIBERATE DEFENSE WITH A SUBSTANTIAL COUNTERATTACK CAPABILITY. 3. THE MOST LIKELY MAJOR RESPONSE BY IRAQ TO THE COALITION ATTACK REMAINS AIR AND SCUD ATTACKS IN COMBINATION WITH U/W AND CW ATTACKS. LOCALIZED RESPONSE BY GROUND FORCES UTILIZING HARASSMENT FIRES BY ARTILLERY AND MRL'S CAN BE EXPECTED TO INCREASE, PARTICULARLY DURING HOURS OF DARKNESS WHEN IZ GROUND FORCES ARE LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO COALITION DETECTION AND ENGAGEMENT BY AIR. UNLESS THESE ELEMENTS ARE RAPIDLY NEUTRALIZED BY AIR STRIKES AND COUNTER BATTERY FIRE, THESE ATTACKS CAN BE EXPECTED TO GROW IN SIZE, FREQUENCY, AND BOLDNESS. 4. WHILE COALITION FORCES HAVE NOT ACHIEVED AIR SUPREMACY OVER IRAQ AND THE KTO, COALITION AIRCRAFT CAN ACHIEVE LOCAL AIR SUPERIORITY AT THE TIME AND PLACE OF THEIR CHOOSING. THE RECENT POOR WEATHER HAS ALLOWED IRAQ TO RECONSTITUTE SOME COMMUNICATIONS AND AIR DEFENSES. IT IS EXPECTED THAT IRAQI DEFENSES WILL BE INVIGORATED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TO INCLUDE INITIATING LIMITED OBJECTIVE ATTACKS BY AIR AND GROUND TO DISRUPT COALITION OFFENSIVE PREPARATIONS. 5. (U) [ b.2. ] and [ b.6. ] #7257 INFODATE: 0
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